{"generated_at": "2026-10-03T17:20:11", "last_fetch": "2026-10-03T06:10:13", "boards": [{"key": "manufacturing", "title": "Manufactura", "blurb": "¿De verdad hay más movimiento en planta? Producción, utilización, pedidos, empleo y el dinero que entra a fábricas nuevas.", "series": [{"code": "indpro", "name": "Índice de producción industrial", "description": "Producción industrial total de EE. UU., 2017 = 100. 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Arriba de 80% las plantas están al límite; abajo de 75% tienen holgura.", "unit": "%", "freq": "m", "decimals": 1, "source": "FRED, Federal Reserve", "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCUMFN", "last_fetch": "2026-10-03T06:10:06", "latest": {"date": "2026-08-01", "value": 75.7309}, "prev": {"date": "2026-07-01", "value": 76.0242}, "yoy": {"date": "2025-08-01", "value": 75.8014, "pct": -0.09}, "points": [["2016-09-01", 76.2173], ["2016-10-01", 76.2794], ["2016-11-01", 76.1979], ["2016-12-01", 76.2277], ["2017-01-01", 76.3856], ["2017-02-01", 76.3458], ["2017-03-01", 76.16], ["2017-04-01", 77.1705], ["2017-05-01", 77.1223], ["2017-06-01", 77.2492], ["2017-07-01", 77.0437], ["2017-08-01", 77.0086], ["2017-09-01", 77.1335], ["2017-10-01", 78.0404], ["2017-11-01", 78.1803], ["2017-12-01", 78.0446], ["2018-01-01", 77.8575], ["2018-02-01", 78.5845], ["2018-03-01", 78.5797], ["2018-04-01", 79.1923], ["2018-05-01", 78.5703], ["2018-06-01", 79.1408], ["2018-07-01", 79.1885], ["2018-08-01", 79.3649], ["2018-09-01", 79.3896], ["2018-10-01", 79.0829], ["2018-11-01", 78.8728], ["2018-12-01", 79.1512], ["2019-01-01", 78.4546], ["2019-02-01", 77.9977], ["2019-03-01", 77.8167], ["2019-04-01", 77.3266], ["2019-05-01", 77.3386], ["2019-06-01", 77.6484], ["2019-07-01", 77.1189], ["2019-08-01", 77.6535], ["2019-09-01", 77.0507], ["2019-10-01", 76.4496], ["2019-11-01", 77.1244], ["2019-12-01", 77.2053], ["2020-01-01", 76.9774], ["2020-02-01", 77.2033], ["2020-03-01", 73.7668], ["2020-04-01", 62.4754], ["2020-05-01", 65.3154], ["2020-06-01", 70.5106], ["2020-07-01", 73.1726], ["2020-08-01", 74.2964], ["2020-09-01", 74.3524], ["2020-10-01", 75.1925], ["2020-11-01", 75.6805], ["2020-12-01", 76.354], ["2021-01-01", 77.1699], ["2021-02-01", 74.0286], ["2021-03-01", 76.4058], ["2021-04-01", 76.6281], ["2021-05-01", 77.5117], ["2021-06-01", 77.5594], ["2021-07-01", 78.2805], ["2021-08-01", 77.8379], ["2021-09-01", 76.894], ["2021-10-01", 77.9803], ["2021-11-01", 78.439], ["2021-12-01", 78.3404], ["2022-01-01", 77.585], ["2022-02-01", 78.0262], ["2022-03-01", 78.3705], ["2022-04-01", 78.3191], ["2022-05-01", 77.9575], ["2022-06-01", 77.515], ["2022-07-01", 77.5659], ["2022-08-01", 77.5335], ["2022-09-01", 77.5079], ["2022-10-01", 77.6805], ["2022-11-01", 77.0373], ["2022-12-01", 75.6673], ["2023-01-01", 76.9659], ["2023-02-01", 76.9753], ["2023-03-01", 76.4495], ["2023-04-01", 77.1414], ["2023-05-01", 76.9659], ["2023-06-01", 76.398], ["2023-07-01", 76.664], ["2023-08-01", 76.5909], ["2023-09-01", 76.5797], ["2023-10-01", 76.1299], ["2023-11-01", 76.4498], ["2023-12-01", 76.4022], ["2024-01-01", 75.1799], ["2024-02-01", 76.0838], ["2024-03-01", 76.1421], ["2024-04-01", 75.6821], ["2024-05-01", 76.0561], ["2024-06-01", 75.865], ["2024-07-01", 75.2171], ["2024-08-01", 75.5198], ["2024-09-01", 75.0416], ["2024-10-01", 74.4805], ["2024-11-01", 74.6357], ["2024-12-01", 74.9036], ["2025-01-01", 74.536], ["2025-02-01", 75.3898], ["2025-03-01", 75.6543], ["2025-04-01", 75.5341], ["2025-05-01", 75.393], ["2025-06-01", 75.5712], ["2025-07-01", 75.8707], ["2025-08-01", 75.8014], ["2025-09-01", 75.6918], ["2025-10-01", 74.9662], ["2025-11-01", 74.8205], ["2025-12-01", 74.6279], ["2026-01-01", 74.6388], ["2026-02-01", 75.0712], ["2026-03-01", 75.2802], ["2026-04-01", 75.8027], ["2026-05-01", 75.8339], ["2026-06-01", 75.9676], ["2026-07-01", 76.0242], ["2026-08-01", 75.7309]]}, {"code": "manemp", "name": "Empleos en manufactura", "description": "Personas empleadas en manufactura en EE. UU., en miles, desestacionalizado.", "unit": "k", "freq": "m", "decimals": 0, "source": "FRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP", "last_fetch": "2026-10-03T06:10:07", "latest": {"date": "2026-09-01", "value": 12652.0}, "prev": {"date": "2026-08-01", "value": 12643.0}, "yoy": {"date": "2025-09-01", "value": 12612.0, "pct": 0.32}, "points": [["2016-10-01", 12316.0], ["2016-11-01", 12311.0], ["2016-12-01", 12324.0], ["2017-01-01", 12334.0], ["2017-02-01", 12350.0], ["2017-03-01", 12361.0], ["2017-04-01", 12367.0], ["2017-05-01", 12377.0], ["2017-06-01", 12390.0], ["2017-07-01", 12390.0], ["2017-08-01", 12435.0], ["2017-09-01", 12443.0], ["2017-10-01", 12457.0], ["2017-11-01", 12472.0], ["2017-12-01", 12501.0], ["2018-01-01", 12527.0], ["2018-02-01", 12551.0], ["2018-03-01", 12576.0], ["2018-04-01", 12595.0], ["2018-05-01", 12623.0], ["2018-06-01", 12656.0], ["2018-07-01", 12676.0], ["2018-08-01", 12688.0], ["2018-09-01", 12710.0], ["2018-10-01", 12731.0], ["2018-11-01", 12741.0], ["2018-12-01", 12761.0], ["2019-01-01", 12790.0], ["2019-02-01", 12782.0], ["2019-03-01", 12788.0], ["2019-04-01", 12785.0], ["2019-05-01", 12778.0], ["2019-06-01", 12787.0], ["2019-07-01", 12790.0], ["2019-08-01", 12789.0], ["2019-09-01", 12787.0], ["2019-10-01", 12733.0], ["2019-11-01", 12777.0], ["2019-12-01", 12760.0], ["2020-01-01", 12745.0], ["2020-02-01", 12743.0], ["2020-03-01", 12684.0], ["2020-04-01", 11382.0], ["2020-05-01", 11610.0], ["2020-06-01", 11950.0], ["2020-07-01", 11973.0], ["2020-08-01", 11999.0], ["2020-09-01", 12057.0], ["2020-10-01", 12086.0], ["2020-11-01", 12118.0], ["2020-12-01", 12153.0], ["2021-01-01", 12142.0], ["2021-02-01", 12172.0], ["2021-03-01", 12229.0], ["2021-04-01", 12193.0], ["2021-05-01", 12216.0], ["2021-06-01", 12247.0], ["2021-07-01", 12305.0], ["2021-08-01", 12353.0], ["2021-09-01", 12393.0], ["2021-10-01", 12453.0], ["2021-11-01", 12498.0], ["2021-12-01", 12537.0], ["2022-01-01", 12564.0], ["2022-02-01", 12601.0], ["2022-03-01", 12674.0], ["2022-04-01", 12726.0], ["2022-05-01", 12735.0], ["2022-06-01", 12767.0], ["2022-07-01", 12800.0], ["2022-08-01", 12832.0], ["2022-09-01", 12849.0], ["2022-10-01", 12883.0], ["2022-11-01", 12896.0], ["2022-12-01", 12895.0], ["2023-01-01", 12903.0], ["2023-02-01", 12898.0], ["2023-03-01", 12888.0], ["2023-04-01", 12884.0], ["2023-05-01", 12869.0], ["2023-06-01", 12875.0], ["2023-07-01", 12862.0], ["2023-08-01", 12861.0], ["2023-09-01", 12872.0], ["2023-10-01", 12837.0], ["2023-11-01", 12859.0], ["2023-12-01", 12872.0], ["2024-01-01", 12875.0], ["2024-02-01", 12852.0], ["2024-03-01", 12836.0], ["2024-04-01", 12833.0], ["2024-05-01", 12825.0], ["2024-06-01", 12814.0], ["2024-07-01", 12806.0], ["2024-08-01", 12772.0], ["2024-09-01", 12758.0], ["2024-10-01", 12697.0], ["2024-11-01", 12711.0], ["2024-12-01", 12693.0], ["2025-01-01", 12673.0], ["2025-02-01", 12671.0], ["2025-03-01", 12666.0], ["2025-04-01", 12662.0], ["2025-05-01", 12651.0], ["2025-06-01", 12636.0], ["2025-07-01", 12625.0], ["2025-08-01", 12615.0], ["2025-09-01", 12612.0], ["2025-10-01", 12603.0], ["2025-11-01", 12593.0], ["2025-12-01", 12580.0], ["2026-01-01", 12582.0], ["2026-02-01", 12583.0], ["2026-03-01", 12598.0], ["2026-04-01", 12597.0], ["2026-05-01", 12595.0], ["2026-06-01", 12608.0], ["2026-07-01", 12628.0], ["2026-08-01", 12643.0], ["2026-09-01", 12652.0]]}, {"code": "amtmno", "name": "Nuevos pedidos a fabricantes", "description": "Valor de los nuevos pedidos que reciben los fabricantes de EE. 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El boom del reshoring en una sola línea.", "unit": "$B/yr", "freq": "m", "decimals": 0, "source": "FRED, Census Bureau", "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS", "last_fetch": "2026-10-03T06:10:07", "latest": {"date": "2026-08-01", "value": 170.701}, "prev": {"date": "2026-07-01", "value": 170.339}, "yoy": {"date": "2025-08-01", "value": 211.142, "pct": -19.15}, "points": [["2016-09-01", 78.026], ["2016-10-01", 75.555], ["2016-11-01", 77.386], ["2016-12-01", 76.513], ["2017-01-01", 72.991], ["2017-02-01", 70.057], ["2017-03-01", 72.26], ["2017-04-01", 71.506], ["2017-05-01", 73.857], ["2017-06-01", 71.187], ["2017-07-01", 70.775], ["2017-08-01", 68.311], ["2017-09-01", 68.975], ["2017-10-01", 69.316], ["2017-11-01", 69.901], ["2017-12-01", 70.259], ["2018-01-01", 68.937], ["2018-02-01", 71.904], ["2018-03-01", 70.005], ["2018-04-01", 70.296], ["2018-05-01", 72.039], ["2018-06-01", 71.996], ["2018-07-01", 70.662], ["2018-08-01", 75.139], ["2018-09-01", 74.819], ["2018-10-01", 73.806], ["2018-11-01", 74.022], ["2018-12-01", 76.85], ["2019-01-01", 77.237], ["2019-02-01", 80.999], ["2019-03-01", 81.372], ["2019-04-01", 82.057], ["2019-05-01", 81.392], ["2019-06-01", 81.813], ["2019-07-01", 81.803], ["2019-08-01", 81.473], ["2019-09-01", 81.672], ["2019-10-01", 79.498], ["2019-11-01", 81.758], ["2019-12-01", 81.03], ["2020-01-01", 79.492], ["2020-02-01", 78.023], ["2020-03-01", 78.369], ["2020-04-01", 74.089], ["2020-05-01", 73.394], ["2020-06-01", 74.956], ["2020-07-01", 76.034], ["2020-08-01", 74.305], ["2020-09-01", 73.451], ["2020-10-01", 75.113], ["2020-11-01", 73.596], ["2020-12-01", 74.784], ["2021-01-01", 76.407], ["2021-02-01", 75.896], ["2021-03-01", 77.935], ["2021-04-01", 76.696], ["2021-05-01", 76.435], ["2021-06-01", 79.323], ["2021-07-01", 80.888], ["2021-08-01", 81.435], ["2021-09-01", 83.013], ["2021-10-01", 87.21], ["2021-11-01", 93.539], ["2021-12-01", 94.605], ["2022-01-01", 97.878], ["2022-02-01", 100.267], ["2022-03-01", 104.096], ["2022-04-01", 111.586], ["2022-05-01", 116.068], ["2022-06-01", 116.675], ["2022-07-01", 127.042], ["2022-08-01", 128.104], ["2022-09-01", 139.493], ["2022-10-01", 141.436], ["2022-11-01", 153.107], ["2022-12-01", 159.231], ["2023-01-01", 172.097], ["2023-02-01", 179.099], ["2023-03-01", 187.446], ["2023-04-01", 199.222], ["2023-05-01", 197.639], ["2023-06-01", 200.828], ["2023-07-01", 202.064], ["2023-08-01", 206.423], ["2023-09-01", 205.054], ["2023-10-01", 218.795], ["2023-11-01", 226.885], ["2023-12-01", 230.263], ["2024-01-01", 233.759], ["2024-02-01", 235.216], ["2024-03-01", 238.676], ["2024-04-01", 242.376], ["2024-05-01", 243.306], ["2024-06-01", 248.899], ["2024-07-01", 248.23], ["2024-08-01", 249.757], ["2024-09-01", 250.233], ["2024-10-01", 246.526], ["2024-11-01", 250.089], ["2024-12-01", 242.048], ["2025-01-01", 237.485], ["2025-02-01", 237.155], ["2025-03-01", 227.339], ["2025-04-01", 227.64], ["2025-05-01", 223.805], ["2025-06-01", 219.564], ["2025-07-01", 215.594], ["2025-08-01", 211.142], ["2025-09-01", 205.019], ["2025-10-01", 202.687], ["2025-11-01", 195.15], ["2025-12-01", 181.798], ["2026-01-01", 184.187], ["2026-02-01", 181.879], ["2026-03-01", 179.814], ["2026-04-01", 177.023], ["2026-05-01", 173.641], ["2026-06-01", 171.232], ["2026-07-01", 170.339], ["2026-08-01", 170.701]]}]}, {"key": "software", "title": "Software y SaaS", "blurb": "A dónde va el dinero del software: inversión empresarial en software, empleos de programación, los ingresos de los referentes SaaS y el tirón del ERP de código abierto.", "series": [{"code": "sw_invest", "name": "Inversión empresarial en software", "description": "Inversión fija privada en software en EE. 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Trimestral.", "unit": "$B/yr", "freq": "q", "decimals": 0, "source": "FRED, Bureau of Economic Analysis", "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B985RC1Q027SBEA", "last_fetch": "2026-10-03T06:10:08", "latest": {"date": "2026-04-01", "value": 809.265}, "prev": {"date": "2026-01-01", "value": 790.777}, "yoy": {"date": "2025-04-01", "value": 744.664, "pct": 8.68}, "points": [["2011-07-01", 254.462], ["2011-10-01", 262.445], ["2012-01-01", 266.002], ["2012-04-01", 272.325], ["2012-07-01", 272.038], ["2012-10-01", 277.879], ["2013-01-01", 286.253], ["2013-04-01", 279.384], ["2013-07-01", 285.989], ["2013-10-01", 290.71], ["2014-01-01", 295.454], ["2014-04-01", 301.302], ["2014-07-01", 308.195], ["2014-10-01", 309.656], ["2015-01-01", 311.071], ["2015-04-01", 312.7], ["2015-07-01", 316.58], ["2015-10-01", 324.687], ["2016-01-01", 335.765], ["2016-04-01", 343.319], ["2016-07-01", 351.724], ["2016-10-01", 360.832], ["2017-01-01", 369.359], ["2017-04-01", 378.807], ["2017-07-01", 387.227], ["2017-10-01", 396.389], ["2018-01-01", 406.838], ["2018-04-01", 419.506], ["2018-07-01", 428.905], ["2018-10-01", 435.859], ["2019-01-01", 433.21], ["2019-04-01", 442.637], ["2019-07-01", 451.805], ["2019-10-01", 461.752], ["2020-01-01", 472.588], ["2020-04-01", 470.088], ["2020-07-01", 475.41], ["2020-10-01", 494.712], ["2021-01-01", 510.307], ["2021-04-01", 528.101], ["2021-07-01", 539.496], ["2021-10-01", 554.624], ["2022-01-01", 576.871], ["2022-04-01", 596.475], ["2022-07-01", 611.06], ["2022-10-01", 619.716], ["2023-01-01", 631.574], ["2023-04-01", 632.026], ["2023-07-01", 637.813], ["2023-10-01", 650.531], ["2024-01-01", 663.871], ["2024-04-01", 680.288], ["2024-07-01", 694.474], ["2024-10-01", 705.314], ["2025-01-01", 722.98], ["2025-04-01", 744.664], ["2025-07-01", 762.757], ["2025-10-01", 774.944], ["2026-01-01", 790.777], ["2026-04-01", 809.265]]}, {"code": "prog_jobs", "name": "Empleos en servicios de programación a medida", "description": "Empleo en servicios de programación a medida en EE. 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Las fábricas recibieron bastantes pedidos nuevos este mes, pero están usando sus plantas un poco menos que antes. Mientras tanto, el dinero que se mete a infraestructura de IA sigue acelerando, no se está calmando. Si vos manejás una operación mediana, la brecha entre que la demanda se vea bien y que el capex se vea una locura es lo que hay que vigilar este mes.

Manufactura

Los nuevos pedidos de manufactura llegaron a $664B en julio, un 9.9% más que hace un año y arriba de los $658B del mes anterior. Esa es una señal real de demanda. Pero la utilización de capacidad bajó a 75.7% desde 76.0%, y el índice de producción manufacturera se aflojó a 99.1 desde 99.4. Las plantas tienen trabajo en cartera pero todavía no están empujando más producción. La bandera más fuerte es el gasto en construcción manufacturera, que cayó 21.2% respecto al año pasado, a $170B al año. El gasto en plantas nuevas y expansiones se está enfriando aunque los pedidos sigan subiendo.

Software y SaaS

La inversión empresarial en software subió a $809B al año, un 8.7% más que hace un año. Los grandes proveedores de plataformas también lo están mostrando: los ingresos de Microsoft subieron 17.8% en su año fiscal, ServiceNow 20.9%, Oracle 17.4%, Workday 13.1%, Salesforce 9.6%. Pero el empleo en servicios de programación a la medida de hecho bajó, 2,363k contra 2,364k el mes anterior, -1.3% respecto al año pasado. Las empresas están gastando más en software pero con menos gente de desarrollo a la medida. La actividad en ERP de código abierto, las estrellas de GitHub de Odoo, ERPNext y Dolibarr, se mantuvo prácticamente plana mes a mes.

IA y trabajo agéntico

Los modelos de IA notables llegaron a 107 en el año, arriba de 98, un aumento de 9.2%. El número que de verdad importa es el gasto de capital: el capex de Oracle subió 162.4% respecto al año pasado, Meta 87.1%, Microsoft 79.6%, Alphabet 74.1%, Amazon 58.8%. Son cinco de las empresas más grandes del mundo metiendo una cantidad de dinero sin precedente a infraestructura de IA. Del lado de las herramientas, la adopción de frameworks de agentes, LangChain, CrewAI, AutoGen, OpenAI Agents SDK, medida en estrellas de GitHub, creció apenas un poco mes a mes. La construcción de infraestructura va muy adelante de la adopción visible de frameworks de agentes por parte de los desarrolladores.

Energía

La generación de electricidad subió a 125.5, un 6.9% más que hace un año. La producción de utilities llegó a 113.0, un 6.2% más. Las dos se están acelerando, y eso cuadra con los números de capex de IA de arriba.

Qué significa esto para un operador mediano

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